The Global Scrap Trade Ecosystem: Drivers, Disruptions, and the Decarbonization Imperative (2025-2030)

I. Executive Summary: Strategic Landscape and Forward Outlook

The global scrap recycling market is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by decarbonization mandates and profound regulatory shifts. Valued at approximately USD $420.83 billion in 2024, the market is projected to expand significantly, reaching USD $568.76 billion by 2032, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 3.9%.¹ However, this growth trajectory is shadowed by impending structural scarcity and geopolitical fragmentation.

Trade flows are currently being severely realigned by unilateral purity mandates and supranational regulations. Following China’s 2018 ban, recipient nations, particularly across Southeast Asia, have implemented extremely stringent quality controls, exemplified by Malaysia’s forthcoming 99.5% homogeneity rule for plastics.² Simultaneously, the European Union’s revamped Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR), with export restrictions set to take effect by May 2027, is creating regulatory uncertainty and forcing major non-OECD importers like India and Turkey to seek diversified sourcing strategies.³

The most critical strategic challenge lies in the ferrous sector. The accelerating global adoption of Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) technology, essential for low-carbon steelmaking, is rapidly increasing demand for scrap. Global scrap demand is projected to grow faster than supply, leading to a projected shift from a current 9 Million Metric Ton (MMT) surplus to a structural 15 MMT deficit by 2030.⁵ This scarcity elevates recycled metal from a simple commodity to a critical strategic raw material, necessitating aggressive vertical integration by manufacturers, immediate investment in advanced sorting technologies to meet rising purity standards, and proactive contract securing in stable export hubs such as the United States and Japan.

II. Global Market Structure and Macroeconomic Drivers

A. Global Market Size and Growth Trajectory

The global scrap metal recycling market size underpins the material flow for numerous key industrial sectors. The market’s valuation of USD $420.83 billion in 2024 is projected to expand at a CAGR of 3.9% through 2032, reaching USD $568.76 billion.¹ Geographically, the market is centered in Asia Pacific, which held an estimated 51.29% market share in 2023, solidifying its dominance as the world’s major processing and consumption hub.¹

Segmentation analysis confirms the heavy industrial reliance on ferrous materials. The Ferrous Metals segment is expected to contribute a dominant 70.7% share of the market in 2025.⁶ This is due to the material’s abundance and its widespread industrial usage, particularly within the Building & Construction sector, which commands a 23% share of demand for recycled scrap metals.⁶ Furthermore, volume growth forecasts indicate robust long-term demand for recycled steel, with the overall steel scrap market projected to grow from 543.2 MMT in 2024 to 727.1 MMT by 2030, representing a CAGR of 5.0%.⁷ The primary driver of this volume growth is the Obsolete Scrap segment, derived from end-of-life products, which is projected to reach 407.2 MMT by 2030 with an even higher CAGR of 6.2%.⁷

B. The Decarbonization Imperative and the Coming Scrap Deficit

The shift toward decarbonization is the single most important structural driver of the scrap market. Scrap is increasingly becoming the raw material of choice for steel production globally as manufacturers attempt to reduce carbon emissions from their supply chains. By 2030, scrap is projected to account for 50% of the global iron content in steel, a substantial increase from approximately 35% today.⁵ The United States already exemplifies this trend, utilizing scrap steel for approximately 72% of its steel production.⁶

However, this structural growth in demand is creating a fundamental imbalance. Global scrap demand is increasing at an estimated 3.3% CAGR, slightly but crucially outpacing supply growth at 3.0% CAGR.⁵ This disparity is forecasted to cause a severe reversal in market dynamics: the current 9 MMT global scrap surplus is projected to turn into a structural 15 MMT deficit by 2030.⁵ This structural constraint places global decarbonization efforts at risk. If this material shortfall materializes, steelmakers worldwide would be compelled to either rely on expensive, carbon-intensive primary production methods or seek alternatives, confirming scrap not merely as an economic commodity but as a strategic geopolitical asset. Key consumption regions like China and the US are expected to require 40% to 50% higher annual scrap consumption by 2030.⁵

In contrast to the long-term demand pressure, global steel scrap consumption by steel enterprises decreased by 12% in 2023 compared to 2022, totaling 411.28 million tons.⁸ This decline occurred despite a marginal increase in global crude steel production, suggesting a short-term cyclical struggle likely driven by macroeconomic headwinds. This contraction was led by major consuming regions such as the European Union (-5.7%), Turkey (-3.9%), and Japan (-2.9%).⁸ Yet, this global downturn was not uniform; both the United States and India increased their consumption, with the US consuming 56.8 million tons (+0.4% year-on-year) and India consuming 29 million tons (+11.5% year-on-year).⁸ This statistical divergence confirms that while cyclical demand can fluctuate, underlying structural transitions—like India’s rapid industrialization—are creating localized, resilient demand hotspots that defy the global trend of consumption reduction. Exporters must strategically prioritize these stable, long-term growth markets while managing risk associated with cyclically sensitive buyers.

III. Detailed Analysis of Global Trade Flows by Material

The global scrap trade is characterized by a high degree of international exchange, with approximately 17% of the world’s annual supply (around 110 million metric tons) traded across borders.⁵

A. Ferrous and Non-Ferrous Scrap Metal Trade Dynamics

1. Leading Global Exporters and Volumes

The supply side of the metal scrap market is dominated by a few major developed nations and trade blocs.

The United States holds its position as the largest single exporter of scrap metal globally.⁹ Total US metal scrap exports accounted for $6.46 billion in 2024, representing a volume of 16.10 million metric tons shipped to over 163 countries worldwide.¹⁰ Primary destinations include Turkey, China (often for higher-grade material), and India.⁹ Major domestic recycling entities, such as Nucor Corporation (Export Revenue: $34.7 billion annually) and Sims Metal Management (Export Revenue: $2.5 billion annually), are central to this massive supply chain.¹⁰ In 2023, the US exported 16.26 million tons, a slight decline of 6.9% year-on-year.⁸

The European Union (EU-27) functions as the largest regional exporter. In 2023, the EU exported 19.22 million tons of scrap, showing a significant increase of 9.2% year-on-year.⁸ This material primarily feeds Turkish EAFs and Asian steel mills. Japan is also a critical exporter, particularly for the Asian market (South Korea and China), benefiting from advanced domestic recycling systems.⁹ Japan exported 6.93 million tons in 2023, marking a 9.8% increase year-on-year.⁸

2. Major Importing Regions and Strategic Dependencies

The demand side is highly concentrated, reflecting global manufacturing hubs and regional industrial dependencies:

• Turkey: Turkey remains the world’s foremost steel scrap importer, a necessity due to its reliance on Electric Arc Furnaces for steel production.⁹ Despite its dominance, Turkey’s imports decreased by 10.1% year-on-year in 2023, totaling 18.77 million tons.⁸ Turkey is strategically reliant on supplies from the United States, the EU, the Netherlands, and Belgium.⁵ This critical reliance is so pronounced that some Turkish steelmakers have established dedicated sourcing units in North America to secure their supply.⁵
• India: India represents a rapidly expanding market driven by extensive infrastructure and manufacturing requirements.⁹ In a development signaling its growing structural importance, India’s scrap imports surged by a remarkable 40.4% year-on-year in 2023 to 11.76 million tons.⁸ The main suppliers for India are currently the EU and North America.⁸ India imports significant volumes of both steel and aluminum scrap.⁴
• Vietnam: Vietnam has emerged as a significant scrap processing hub.¹³ In 2023, it was the third-largest scrap importing country, bringing in 5.14 million tons, an increase of 19.6% year-on-year.⁸
• South Korea: Due to its strong electronics and automotive manufacturing base, South Korea is a major importer of non-ferrous scrap metals, particularly copper and aluminum.⁹

The dramatic statistical divergence between Turkey (cyclical struggle, -10.1% imports in 2023) and India (structural growth, +40.4% imports in 2023) indicates that India is rapidly approaching strategic parity with Turkey as a key global buyer.⁸ This structural, long-term industrialization provides India with a stable demand base that is less susceptible to short-term EAF utilization fluctuations. Consequently, India’s market influence is expanding, requiring dedicated pricing benchmarks, as seen by the launch of CIF India aluminum scrap prices in 2024.⁴

Table 3: Global Scrap Trade Leaders and Key Volumes (2023 Data)

Country/Region	Primary Role	Material Focus	2023 Volume (MMT/Tons)	Y/Y Change (%)	Key Trade Partner(s)
Turkey	Importer (Foremost)	Ferrous Scrap (Steel)	18.77 MMT (Imports)	-10.1%	EU, US 5
India	Importer (High Growth)	Ferrous & Non-Ferrous	11.76 MMT (Imports)	+40.4%	EU, North America 8
Vietnam	Importer (Rising Hub)	Metals, Paper, Plastics	5.14 MMT (Metals Imports)	+19.6%	Asia, EU [8, 14]
European Union	Exporter (Largest Region)	Ferrous Scrap	19.22 MMT (Exports)	+9.2%	Turkey, Asia 8
United States	Exporter (Largest Single Nation)	Ferrous & Non-Ferrous	16.26 MMT (Exports)	-6.9%	Turkey, China, India [8, 10]
Japan	Exporter	Ferrous Scrap	6.93 MMT (Exports)	+9.8%	South Korea, China 8

3. Market Pricing and Geopolitical Influence

The scrap market is highly susceptible to price volatility, often fluctuating by up to 30% within a single month due to global economic conditions and currency exchange rates.¹⁵ In 2025, the market faces strong downward pressure, indicated by a Trend Indicator drop to 25.4, well below the 35-point threshold that signifies strong bearish sentiment.¹⁶

Contamination exerts a direct downward force on pricing. Buyers implement tiered systems where contaminated materials requiring additional sorting can face price reductions of 10%-15%.¹¹ This inherent linkage emphasizes that investment in quality sorting is critical for maximizing export profitability.

Geopolitics serves as a critical force shaping trade flows. Recent tensions, such as stricter import standards imposed by China on contaminated scrap, have compelled US exporters to divert materials away from traditional channels and seek alternative buyers in India and Southeast Asia.¹⁶ Furthermore, illicit trade routes pose a persistent operational risk. In Southeast Asia, illegal smuggling of aluminum scrap (HS 7602) has emerged due to fragmented regional trade policies and inconsistent customs oversight.¹⁷ This challenge is exacerbated by Vietnam’s 2025-2030 suspension of temporary imports and transits of aluminum scrap, which creates arbitrage opportunities and complex cross-border smuggling networks that evade formal systems.¹⁷ These incidents highlight the difficulty in uniformly enforcing centralized environmental and trade standards across multinational economic blocs.

B. Plastic Scrap Trade: Regulatory Fragmentation and Purity Barriers

The global plastic scrap trade is characterized by extreme regulatory volatility stemming from high-volume export practices. Top global plastic waste exporters include Germany, Japan, and the United Kingdom.¹⁸ The United States reduced its plastic waste exports by 28 percent in a recent period, reflecting a domestic response to regulatory changes, while the Netherlands simultaneously increased its exports by 69 percent.¹⁸

The landscape was permanently altered by China’s 2018 “National Sword” policy, which banned the importation of plastic waste (HS 3915) to protect its environment and foster domestic recycling capacity.¹⁹ This action immediately redirected plastic scrap shipments—often low-grade and high-contamination—to other Southeast Asian nations, including Malaysia, Vietnam, and Indonesia.²¹ These nations quickly faced overwhelming pollution and illegal importing, leading them to enact their own bans and stringent import regulations.²²

The most notable example of this policy tightening is Malaysia. Effective July 1, 2025, Malaysia implemented sweeping restrictions that redefined the country’s role in international waste trade.²³ These rules effectively amount to a ban on most post-consumer plastic waste by establishing unyieldingly high quality thresholds.² Key requirements include:

1. A minimum 99.5% homogeneity for plastic waste, with contamination from non-plastic materials capped at 2%.²
2. Imports are only permitted from countries that have ratified the Basel Convention.²

This Basel ratification requirement directly impacts the United States, which is not a party to the Convention and consequently will no longer be able to export plastic waste to Malaysia, a country that received approximately 35,000 tonnes of US plastic waste in 2024.² These stringent purity criteria fundamentally function as non-tariff barriers, confirming the “waste havens hypothesis” where trade restriction shifts the burden of environmental damage and costly remediation back to the exporting country.²⁰ Exporters worldwide are now forced to invest heavily in domestic pre-treatment and sorting to maintain access to these vital Asian markets.

C. Waste Paper Trade: Concentrated Asian Demand

In the global paper scrap market, demand is heavily concentrated in Asia. Vietnam is the globally dominant importer, accounting for a massive 83% of global import shipments tracked.¹⁴ India emerges as the second-largest importer.¹⁴ Exporters primarily originate from North America and Europe, with complex logistical chains sometimes involving the export of wastepaper from North or South America to European customers via trans-loading facilities in countries like Germany.²⁴

IV. Regulatory Frameworks and Policy-Induced Market Disruptions

Regulatory bodies, particularly in Europe and Asia, are fundamentally reshaping the operational landscape of global scrap trade, moving away from a laissez-faire approach toward enforced resource security and environmental soundness.

A. The EU Waste Shipment Regulation (WSR) and Export Restriction

The new EU WSR, which officially entered into force in May 2024 (though most export rules apply from May 2027), represents a critical pivot in European trade policy.²⁶ Its primary objective is to prevent the EU from exporting its waste challenges, strengthen enforcement against illegal trafficking, and ensure that all EU waste is managed in an environmentally sound manner (ESM).³

The WSR introduces tiered export restrictions differentiated by material and destination:

1. Plastic Waste: A complete ban on the export of plastic waste from the EU to non-OECD countries will apply from November 21, 2026.³
2. Other Non-Hazardous Waste (e.g., commodity-grade metal scrap): Export to non-OECD countries will be prohibited from May 21, 2027, unless the destination country submits a formal request and is added to an approved list based on its demonstrated capacity for ESM.³

As of February 2025, 24 non-OECD nations, including vital long-term trade partners such as India, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Turkey, submitted formal requests to the European Commission for eligibility to continue importing non-hazardous EU waste post-2027.³ The Commission is scheduled to announce its decision on this eligibility list by November 2026.³

This regulatory uncertainty creates a strategic advantage for non-EU exporters. Major non-OECD importers like India cannot commit to long-term supply contracts with EU suppliers without guaranteed eligibility status post-2027. This instability incentivizes these critical buyers to diversify their supply chains immediately, favoring non-EU sources (e.g., the US, Japan) that are not subjected to the WSR restrictions.²⁷

Furthermore, the WSR highlights a core tension within the EU’s own strategy. The EU activated a customs surveillance system in 2025 to monitor imports and exports of ferrous, aluminum, and copper scrap.²⁸ This action was taken due to concerns over “scrap leakage” to third countries, which is reducing the domestic availability of material for EU metal industries.²⁸ This dilemma suggests that the WSR framework, designed to ensure global ESM, risks undermining the raw material security and competitiveness of the EU’s domestic industrial base, creating an inherent conflict between circular economy ideals and immediate industrial needs.²⁹

B. International Conventions and Hazardous Waste

The Basel Convention on the Control of Transboundary Movements of Hazardous Wastes and their Disposal remains the cornerstone of international waste trade regulation.³¹ Adopted in response to the “toxic trade” of the 1980s, its fundamental aim is to protect human health and the environment by restricting the movement of hazardous wastes.³¹

Crucially, the scope of the Convention has expanded beyond traditionally hazardous industrial waste. Recent amendments agreed upon in June 2022 explicitly control the international trade in certain plastic wastes and electrical and electronic waste (e-waste) and scrap.³¹ This expansion has immediate strategic implications, particularly for the United States, which is not a Party to the Basel Convention.³² As demonstrated by Malaysia’s new import rules, membership status in key environmental regimes is now a fundamental determinant of market access, forcing US exporters to rely entirely on non-Basel countries or OECD trade partners.²

C. The Rising Tide of Export Restrictions

Globally, the use of export restrictions on industrial raw materials has increased five-fold since 2009, accelerating markedly in 2023.³³ Data collected by the OECD confirms that waste and scrap materials are the most frequently restricted category for Critical Raw Material (CRM) exports.³³

Policymakers often justify these restrictions based on environmental concerns and the desire to build domestic circular supply chains and enhance economic security.³³ While promoting domestic recycling, these restrictions carry a risk of compromising global net-zero targets by restricting the necessary recycled raw materials required for green manufacturing in importing nations.³³

V. Operational Challenges and Logistical Imperatives

Securing profitable and compliant scrap trade requires mastery over quality control and complex international logistics, particularly in the face of increasingly demanding regulatory environments.

A. Quality Assurance and Contamination Control

Contamination represents the most significant operational and economic hurdle in the recycling supply chain.¹⁵ Non-metallic materials, chemicals, oil, paint, and dirt frequently enter recycling streams, substantially reducing the quality and value of recovered metals.¹⁵ If contamination compromises the final product’s integrity, additional costly processing is required.¹⁵ As noted, pricing can be reduced by 10% to 15% for highly contaminated material, confirming that poor quality directly impacts export profitability.¹¹

To overcome these aggressive purity requirements, advanced sorting technologies are transitioning from optional investments to mandatory operational requirements. German buyers of scrap metal are utilizing Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) technology to precisely sort scrap iron, which reduces processing costs to $17 per ton while increasing the removal rate of low-quality scrap by 20%.¹¹ In non-ferrous streams, advanced sensors and data analytics are being leveraged to sort high-value post-consumer and post-production scrap, as demonstrated by the partnership between Novelis and Sortera.³⁵ This technological imperative confirms that global competition is shifting from a focus on simple volume trading to a processing capability competition. Exporters who fail to invest in advanced domestic pre-treatment and sorting technology will find themselves restricted to domestic or less profitable markets.

The shift of the cleanup burden back to the exporting nations also reveals the true economic cost of recycling. High-income countries historically exported scrap to avoid disposal costs at home.¹⁹ With destination countries raising standards to near-primary material quality (99.5% purity ²), the unrecyclable portion of exported material (such as the 55% of the five million tonnes of plastic exported yearly that is discarded ¹⁸) must now be managed domestically. This necessity increases local processing and disposal costs, potentially leading to the reduction of collection programs or increased local tipping fees, thereby challenging established assumptions about recycling efficiency.²⁰

B. Logistics, Compliance, and Security

International logistics are critical for scrap metal exporting, demanding efficient infrastructure, packaging, and meticulous documentation.¹⁵ Material must be properly sorted (ferrous and non-ferrous) and processed (shredded, crushed, or baled) before shipment.¹⁵

Strict adherence to international regulations, particularly the mandates of the Basel Convention, is vital for ensuring environmentally sound shipping practices and avoiding severe penalties.³⁷ Freight forwarders must maintain detailed records and documentation corresponding to correct Harmonized System (HS) trade codes (e.g., HS 7204 for metal scrap, HS 3915 for plastic waste) to navigate customs clearance successfully.¹⁰

Furthermore, security against illicit trade remains an operational challenge. International freight forwarders must be vigilant against scrap metal scams and illegal trafficking, which often involves the misdeclaration of scrap categories or the exploitation of fragmented policy environments among trading partners.¹⁷ Vigilance and close collaboration with authorities are necessary to safeguard the integrity of the recycling supply chain.³⁸

VI. Strategic Forecast and Future Trade Scenarios (2027-2030)

The next three to five years will be defined by the severe shortage of ferrous scrap and the policy-induced reconfiguration of global trade lanes, particularly between major exporting and importing blocs.

A. Navigating the Ferrous Scrap Deficit

The projected 15 MMT structural deficit in carbon steel scrap by 2030 requires proactive strategic mitigation.⁵ Solutions must address both supply augmentation and demand management:

1. Supply Control and Integration: Steel companies must focus on locking in consistent supplies, often through vertical integration, such as acquiring scrap yards.⁵ Processors must increase available supply through investment in new recycling technologies and industry consolidation.⁵
2. Alternative Iron Units: The deficit necessitates increased substitution with high-quality primary iron sources like Direct Reduced Iron (DRI) and Hot Briquetted Iron (HBI).⁴⁰ However, this strategy faces its own limitations: the demand for DR-grade iron ore is expected to result in a simultaneous deficit of more than 100 MTPA by 2031.⁴⁰ This scarcity across both secondary (scrap) and alternative primary (DRI) iron units guarantees high premiums and intense global competition for all clean iron material.

B. Trade Reconfiguration: OECD vs. Non-OECD Bloc Formation

The EU WSR imposes a significant element of regulatory balkanization on the global market. Post-2027, EU trade will favor compliant OECD partners, while establishing high barriers for non-OECD countries.²⁶

The authorization status of the 24 non-OECD applicants—especially India, Vietnam, and Turkey—will be the single most critical determinant of EU scrap export flow.³ If these major importers fail to achieve eligibility for EU supply post-2027, they will be forced to secure material primarily from non-EU sources (the US, Japan, UK).

This scenario strategically positions the United States, the world’s largest exporter and operating outside the EU regulatory framework, to capture significant market share.¹⁶ By offering regulatory stability and consistent supply, US exporters can become the preferred long-term partner for high-growth non-OECD nations that are seeking to de-risk their supply chains from EU policy volatility. This shift is particularly advantageous in India, a market already experiencing surging, structural demand.

Table 4: Future Risk/Opportunity Matrix for Key Trade Corridors (2027-2030)

Trade Corridor	Primary Risk	Primary Opportunity	Regulatory Driver	Strategic Outlook
EU to Turkey	WSR restrictions reduce flow; potential for EU domestic retention.28	Continued strategic necessity for both parties (EAF reliance).5	EU WSR (May 2027 restrictions).3	Moderate flow contraction; high price competition for remaining supply.
US to India/Vietnam	Price volatility, non-compliance with purity standards.[2, 16]	Capturing market share lost by the EU post-WSR.27	SE Asia Purity Rules (99.5%); US not subject to WSR.	High growth potential; contingent on advanced processing investment by US exporters.
Global (Ferrous)	15 MMT supply deficit 5; high price/cost of DRI substitution.40	Accelerated vertical integration and securing high-quality long-term supply agreements.5	Global Decarbonization Mandates (EAF push).5	Shift scrap to a strategic asset class, requiring C-suite supply acquisition.

C. The Copper Supply Chain and Regional Leakage

The copper recycling sector offers a nuanced example of supply chain redirection. China’s new waste policies, while limiting low-value scrap, have prompted increased refined copper imports. This global market shift has enabled better utilization of displaced scrap material elsewhere, promoting secondary refining production outside of China and driving the copper material system toward a more market-stable transition favoring the circular economy.⁴¹

However, Europe faces unique vulnerabilities regarding its copper supply. The confluence of domestic WSR restrictions and aggressive global sourcing by major industrial players—such as the Hong Kong-based firms specializing in recovery of high-grade precious metal scrap ¹¹—threatens to cause “material leakage”.³⁰ This leakage could undermine European copper recycling rates, resulting in lost environmental benefits, resource efficiency decline, and an increased carbon footprint for finished copper products manufactured within the EU.³⁰

VII. Conclusions and Recommendations

The global scrap trade ecosystem is migrating from a cost-driven, volume-focused market to a quality-driven, strategically secured raw materials sector. The analysis yields three core strategic conclusions:

1. Scrap Quality is the New Trade Currency: The proliferation of ultra-stringent purity rules (e.g., Malaysia’s 99.5% standard) and regulatory criteria (Basel Convention adherence) signifies that low-grade, contaminated scrap is rapidly losing its viability in the international market. This mandates that developed nations internalize the environmental costs of waste management by making significant capital investments in advanced sorting and pre-treatment technologies (LIBS, AI sensors) to guarantee compliance and maintain access to critical Asian growth markets.
2. India is the Emerging Strategic Market Anchor: While Turkey remains the historical volume leader, its import consumption shows cyclical contraction. India’s 40.4% surge in imports in 2023 reflects stable, structural, long-term industrialization. Strategic exporters, particularly those outside the regulatory scope of the EU WSR (i.e., the US), should prioritize India and Vietnam as key long-term destinations to de-risk their supply channels from impending EU policy volatility.
3. The Ferrous Deficit Requires C-Suite Intervention: The projected 15 MMT structural scrap deficit by 2030 presents an existential threat to low-carbon steelmaking goals globally, potentially forcing reliance on equally scarce or carbon-intensive alternatives like DR-grade iron ore. Securing raw materials, therefore, requires C-suite-level action focused on vertical integration, long-term supply agreements, and exploration of joint ventures with scrap processors to lock in consistent, high-quality material flows.

The long-term profitability and environmental sustainability of the scrap industry will be determined by which market participants most rapidly adapt to these new realities of resource scarcity and regulatory fragmentation.

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